A study published in the journal Nature suggests that the amount of carbon that people can still emit and continue warming up to 1.5°C may be depleted within the next 6 years.
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It is unlikely that people will be able to limit global warming to the target set by the Paris Climate Agreement. This is according to a new study. Rebecca Hersher of NPR reports that this does not mean all hope is lost.
REBECCA HERSHER, BYLINE: The Paris Climate Agreement set a goal to limit global warming significantly below 2 degrees Celsius compared to temperatures in the late 1800s. Ideally, it aimed to limit warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. 1.5 degrees is not a magical number. It's an estimate of when some of the most catastrophic climate change impacts will begin, such as mass extinctions, a 10-foot rise in sea levels, and so on. But new research confirms what other studies have already suggested: it is unlikely that people will limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Joeri Rogelj from Imperial College London is one of the authors.
JOERI ROGELJ: It's clear that pathways that limit warming to 1.5 degrees are gone. They have been gone for a while, to be honest.
HERSHER: Five years ago, there was roughly a 50/50 chance that people could achieve the 1.5-degree target if emissions from smokestacks and chimneys were reduced. But emissions are still rising, just more slowly than before. Today, according to the study's estimates, there is roughly a 1 in 6 chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, so it's unlikely, says Rogelj, but not impossible.
ROGELJ: It's definitely not zero, and it definitely deserves attention.
HERSHER: We should continue efforts to reduce emissions as quickly as possible, he says. But the results also show that we should be prepared for warming to exceed 1.5 degrees. That's likely what will happen, and it's not great. But it's not literally the end of the world, because 1.5 degrees is not a cliff that we are doomed to fall off once we cross it. Christopher Smith from the University of Leeds is another author of the new study.
CHRISTOPHER SMITH: If we can limit warming to 1.6 degrees or 1.65 degrees or 1.7 degrees, that's much better than 2 degrees. We still have to fight for every tenth of a degree.
HERSHER: There are some signs of progress on this front. According to a recent report, renewable energy sources are growing rapidly, and according to another recent report, global fossil fuel use may peak as soon as this year. So even if 1.5 degrees slips away, 1.6 or 1.7 degrees are still within our reach. Rebecca Hersher, NPR News."