"As the specter of climate-fueled disasters continues to haunt American communities, a pressing question emerges: Should we build homes in areas vulnerable to floods, droughts, and wildfires intensified by climate change? This quandary confronts a growing number of local governments grappling with the stark reality of environmental hazards. The dilemma, while complex, forces communities to balance the imperative for more housing, a critical economic driver funded by property taxes, against the escalating risks of climate-related disasters.

Katharine Mach, a climate change and housing researcher at the University of Miami, notes the multifaceted nature of the challenge. "If you're a local government, of course you want to develop," she observes. "You're building a community, supporting livelihoods, fostering tourism, and there's the pragmatic dimension of needing property taxes." The conflict between the demand for housing and the imperative to mitigate climate risks creates a delicate balancing act for local officials, who traditionally wield control over land-use decisions.

The urgency to address this dilemma is underscored by the increasing frequency of extreme weather events causing over $580 billion in damage and claiming numerous lives over the last five years. Recognizing the severity of the situation, some states are enacting laws that impose conditions on future growth. NPR explores three distinct locations navigating the challenge of whether to curtail home construction in high-risk areas, with outcomes varying in degrees of success. Whether contending with floods, wildfires, or droughts, communities across the United States find themselves engaged in similar deliberations, compelled to confront the imperative of sustainable development in the face of a changing climate.

In California, where the dual challenges of housing shortages and escalating wildfire risks are painfully evident, a proposed development of nearly 3,000 homes in Santee prompts a community-wide debate about housing and the heightened threat of wildfires."

"As California grapples with some of the nation's highest housing costs, the imperative to build more homes collides with the daunting challenge of where to place them in a state where a quarter of the land is at high risk of wildfires. In a landscape shaped by the dual pressures of expensive housing and escalating climate-related risks, California's local governments are tasked with navigating this delicate balance, and the spotlight falls on communities like Santee.

Santee, a suburban town on the outskirts of San Diego, epitomizes the complexities faced by local authorities. With few statewide regulations, the responsibility of harmonizing housing needs with wildfire risks falls squarely on Santee's shoulders. The town, nestled next to expansive open spaces, is in the midst of planning a major development known as Fanita Ranch, comprising almost 3,000 homes. However, this ambitious project is not without controversy.

Residents like Van Collinsworth, a wildfire inspector well-versed in the vulnerabilities of the city, have long contested the development. Santee narrowly escaped the devastating 2003 Cedar Fire, which razed over 2,000 homes. Collinsworth, who directs Preserve Wild Santee, an environmental group, asserts, "I don't think developers and decision-makers are willing to acknowledge that we are living in a new era of extreme weather and really grapple with what that means for the desire to build and build and build." His concerns resonate with a recent legal victory as a judge ruled against the project, citing insufficient analysis of evacuation logistics and safety during a fire.

The clash between development aspirations and the heightened reality of climate-related challenges underscores the need for a nuanced approach, forcing communities to confront the evolving risks associated with housing expansion in a changing climate."

"In a bid to overcome resistance and address concerns, HomeFed Corp., the developer behind the Fanita Ranch project, re-proposed its plan in 2022. This revised proposal introduced a phased evacuation plan based on zones for more efficient clearing of neighborhoods in case of wildfires. The houses themselves would be constructed with fire-resistant materials and equipped with fire sprinklers. To mitigate the risk of wildfires, inspectors would ensure biannual clearance of flammable vegetation, funded through homeowners association fees. Moreover, these funds would contribute to the maintenance of a vegetation-free buffer around the community's periphery.

Kent Aden, Senior Vice President of HomeFed, emphasizes the rigorous safety standards incorporated into the project. He notes, 'Other parts of the country are in a hurricane zone, and they have codes and standards that say, if you build to these standards, you can go ahead and build a home. We have all these standards for building in wildfire zones, but there seems to be a resistance to allow projects to move forward that meet or exceed those standards.'

Despite obtaining City Council approval in 2023, with local fire officials endorsing the wildfire safety measures, the project faces renewed legal challenges. Van Collinsworth and environmental groups filed a second lawsuit seeking to halt the development, highlighting the ongoing struggle between development aspirations and environmental concerns.

While California leads in some wildfire policies, including individual home building codes, there is a notable absence of statewide laws guiding development decisions in high-risk zones. However, State Senator Ben Allen's proposed bill aims to bridge this gap by mandating developers to analyze fire behavior and create evacuation plans in collaboration with local fire authorities. The debate surrounding Fanita Ranch encapsulates the broader dilemma faced by California's local governments in balancing housing demands with the imperative to minimize wildfire risks."

"As legislative efforts to establish standards for housing approval in high-risk areas face resistance from the building industry, the dilemma of balancing safety with development persists. While the ideal scenario involves siting houses and infrastructure in safer locations, the reality is that there are no areas devoid of hazards. This challenge is particularly evident in Arizona, where a quadrupled population in the last 50 years, coupled with climate change and a prolonged drought, is placing unprecedented strain on water supplies.

Cities around Phoenix, situated in a desert, constantly grapple with water supply questions, with Arizona boasting one of the most influential laws in the country linking water decisions to development choices. Casa Grande, an hour south of Phoenix, epitomizes this intersection of housing demand, industrial growth, and water scarcity. Mayor Craig McFarland acknowledges the city's future dependence on water and the pressing need for workforce housing. However, the two-decade drought in the Southwest has triggered water supply cutbacks, and the strain on the Colorado River, a major water source, exacerbates the challenge. Underground aquifers, another crucial water source, face overpumping concerns in Pinal County, where Casa Grande is located.

To navigate this complex landscape, McFarland consults a map resembling a patchwork quilt. Blue parcels guarantee a water supply for new homes, while white parcels necessitate developers to secure their water supply for construction. State law imposes growth limitations in water-scarce areas, demanding new subdivisions demonstrate a 100-year water supply for their residents. The struggle between growth aspirations and water sustainability encapsulates the broader conundrum faced by cities in the arid Southwest as they grapple with the competing demands of development and environmental constraints."

"Arizona stands alone as the sole state in the U.S. requiring a 100-year water supply for new developments, a regulation touted by Casa Grande Mayor Craig McFarland as a consumer protection measure. However, this stringent requirement has led to creative workarounds by developers keen on navigating the water scarcity landscape. Notably, Arizona's water law kicks in only when lots are subdivided into smaller ones for six or more homes, intended for either sale or long-term rentals.

In response, developers have seized on the concept of 'build to rent' projects, where numerous rental units are constructed on a single large plot of land, sidestepping the need for an assured water supply for each unit. Casa Grande exemplifies this trend, witnessing a surge in such projects, including a 331-unit development currently under construction. Greg Hancock of Hancock Builders notes the attractiveness of this approach in the housing market, emphasizing that despite the ongoing water concerns, people continue to flock to Arizona.

The 'build to rent' trend, while financially lucrative for developers, is not without its challenges. Water regulators express apprehensions over the unaccounted-for water demand and foresee insufficient groundwater to meet existing needs over the next century. Kathleen Ferris, a senior research fellow at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, underscores the irreversible nature of building houses and renting them, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach to manage the long-term implications of water use in an era of increasing water scarcity."

"Four decades ago, Kathleen Ferris played a pivotal role in crafting Arizona's 100-year water law, designed to tether building decisions to water considerations. At its inception, the concept of 'build to rent' wasn't widespread. Now, as Arizona grapples with the accelerating impacts of climate change and aridification, Ferris believes the state stands at a critical juncture where all water use must be meticulously accounted for. Acknowledging the unforeseen pace of climate change, she emphasizes the need for a profound understanding of limits amid opportunities for growth.

In Pinal County, Arizona, developers face the challenge of securing a water supply for traditional subdivisions, while large rental projects exploit a regulatory loophole exempting them from this requirement. Legislative attempts this year to close this gap, compelling rental projects to have a water supply, failed to pass, with cities resisting due to concerns about limiting solutions to the housing shortage. A working group convened by Governor Katie Hobbs is now examining the issue, grappling with the overarching conversation about growth.

As droughts intensify, Arizona's water law compels cities to explore local solutions to boost water supplies, such as water recycling projects and enhanced conservation efforts. Pinal County Supervisor Stephen Miller, reflecting on the limits of growth, emphasizes the necessity of importing water to sustain any form of continued development.

This discourse mirrors a broader trend in the national conversation about balancing growth with environmental sustainability. In contrast, New Jersey offers a potential blueprint for harmonizing growth and flood protection. Despite being the most densely populated and flood-prone state, New Jersey has undertaken a comprehensive effort over the past decade to safeguard residents from flooding, successfully limiting new construction in flood-prone areas and enhancing protection for those living or considering moving into flood zones."

"New Jersey stands as a model of proactive measures in confronting its flooding challenges, earning acclaim from climate researcher A.R. Siders at the University of Delaware. Since the devastation wrought by Superstorm Sandy in 2012, the state has implemented a multifaceted approach to mitigate flood risks. Regulatory changes post-Sandy have made it tougher to build new homes in flood zones. Renovations to existing homes in these areas require substantial upgrades, such as elevating entire structures on stilts or relocating essential utilities off the ground to withstand floods.

In 2023, New Jersey reinforced its commitment to flood resilience by enacting some of the nation's most robust flood disclosure laws. Homebuyers now receive information about the flooding history and potential future risks of prospective homes. Woodbridge Township, a town in New Jersey, exemplifies the state's comprehensive strategy, actively removing homes from flood-prone areas and replacing them with wilderness trails. This open space serves a dual purpose, providing room for floodwaters to disperse after storms without causing damage to homes.

New Jersey's permanent home-buyout program, known as Blue Acres, has acquired over 1,000 homes in the last decade. This initiative involves demolishing homes that have experienced flooding, creating additional open space to absorb floodwater. Preliminary findings by a group of climate scientists, including Siders and Mach, suggest that New Jersey is outperforming the national average in terms of homes located in flood zones. This achievement is particularly noteworthy given the state's status as the most densely populated and flood-prone in the country.

As New Jersey grapples with its vulnerability to rising sea levels and intensified storms, its proactive and comprehensive approach to flood mitigation serves as a potential blueprint for other states seeking to balance growth with environmental sustainability."

"In the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy's devastating impact on Woodbridge Township, the local government faced the difficult decision of supporting home buyouts to ensure resident safety. Mayor John McCormac reflects on the challenging choice, stating that while it wasn't the preferred course of action, rebuilding in flood-prone areas was equally inconceivable. The town's commitment to residents was paramount, and alternative avenues for economic growth were explored.

Given the voluntary nature of home buyouts, progress hinged on residents agreeing to relocate. McCormac recalls a tense town meeting where emotions ran high, acknowledging the difficulty of urging people to leave homes they had cherished for decades. Similar conversations unfolded across the state, navigating complex discussions about property rights and the essence of homeownership.

Nick Angarone, New Jersey's chief resilience officer, emphasizes the intricate and challenging nature of these conversations, touching on fundamental principles of property rights and individual freedoms. Despite the complexities, New Jersey has differentiated itself by assigning case managers to residents considering home buyouts. These case managers serve as a crucial support system, guiding individuals through the bureaucratic processes and emotional nuances of such significant decisions.

Courtney Wald-Wittkop, overseeing the Blue Acres program, affirms the pivotal role of case managers as the program's 'secret sauce,' adept at establishing rapport and relationships with homeowners. This unique approach in providing support during the buyout process aligns with New Jersey's comprehensive strategy to reduce homes in harm's way and stands as a potential model for other states grappling with similar challenges."

"To mitigate the risks of climate-related flooding, one effective strategy is to elevate homes, placing the living space above potential floodwaters. In Woodbridge, New Jersey, Tom Flynn, the flood plain manager, emphasizes that homes in high-risk areas must undergo elevation if subjected to renovations. The town's commitment to flood resilience extends beyond individual homes, incorporating broader regulatory measures.

New Jersey's success in matching residents with experienced case managers is attributed to the continuous availability of the Blue Acres program. Unlike other state buyout initiatives activated solely after major disasters, Blue Acres operates permanently, fostering increased accessibility for homeowners and local officials. This consistent presence facilitates ongoing engagement and support, crucial for navigating the buyout process effectively.

Woodbridge's proactive approach resulted in over 180 homeowners choosing buyouts and relocating, contributing to the town's stable population and growing economy. To further enhance resilience, Woodbridge implements tighter regulations, mandating the elevation of homes remaining in flood-prone areas. Rather than constructing new homes in marshy zones, the town encourages denser development near transportation hubs. This strategic shift not only bolsters the town's economic growth but also yields tangible benefits in reducing flood damage.

Tom Flynn highlights the success of this approach during the remnants of Hurricane Ida in 2021, where the town experienced significantly fewer flooded homes than in previous events. Despite these proactive measures, New Jersey grapples with a persistent flooding challenge, exacerbated by the Earth's warming. As the climate continues to change, the options for safe construction will inevitably narrow, emphasizing the urgency of sustained and innovative flood resilience strategies."

"In conclusion, New Jersey's proactive and continuous approach to mitigating the risks of climate-related flooding sets it apart as a model for balancing growth and environmental sustainability. The state's Blue Acres program, operating permanently and supported by experienced case managers, offers a unique and accessible pathway for homeowners navigating the complexities of buyouts. Woodbridge Township's commitment to elevating homes in flood-prone areas and implementing tighter regulations showcases a comprehensive strategy that not only stabilizes the population and stimulates economic growth but also significantly reduces flood damage during extreme weather events.

However, the persistent flooding challenge in New Jersey underscores the broader environmental impact of climate change. As the Earth continues to warm, the urgency to identify and protect safe areas for construction becomes paramount. New Jersey's innovative measures provide valuable lessons for other states grappling with similar issues, emphasizing the need for sustained efforts in building resilience against climate-related threats while ensuring the safety and well-being of communities."