In a historic moment marking the conclusion of COP28, the United Nations climate conference held in Dubai, nations across the globe were urged to transition away from the primary culprit of climate change—fossil fuels. The landmark agreement, finalized in the waning weeks of the hottest recorded year, included a modest yet significant reference to the imperative of moving beyond fossil fuels, a move deemed crucial by scientists to avert catastrophic warming.
Sultan al-Jaber of the United Arab Emirates celebrated the conclusion of the climate meeting alongside United Nations Climate Chief Simon Stiell and COP28 CEO Adnan Amin on December 13, 2023. The agreement, forged after more than two weeks of intense negotiations, was met with a mix of accolades and discontent among the nearly 200 participating countries.
Denmark's climate minister, Dan Jørgensen, expressed a sense of overdue acknowledgment, stating, "It's embarrassing that it took 28 years, but now we're finally there. Now it finally seems like the world has acknowledged that we need to move away from fossil [fuels].
However, the final decision left some nations dissatisfied, particularly those most vulnerable to the escalating impacts of climate change. Notably, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), representing nations with minimal contributions to global climate change but facing severe threats such as sea-level rise, voiced its displeasure. AOSIS criticized the final text, citing what they deemed a "litany of loopholes.
Members of AOSIS and climate activists had advocated for a clearer roadmap towards phasing out fossil fuels, which are accountable for 75% of global warming. Anne Rasmussen of Samoa, speaking on behalf of the AOSIS coalition, emphasized that the final agreement lacked a mandate for countries to cease fossil fuel use by a specified date, deeming it an insufficient response to the urgency conveyed by scientific evidence.
As the global community grapples with the escalating climate crisis, the outcomes of COP28 reflect both progress and persistent challenges in navigating the complex landscape of international climate negotiations. The call to move away from fossil fuels marks a pivotal moment, yet the discontent among certain nations underscores the ongoing need for concerted and ambitious actions to address the urgent threats posed by climate change.
The imperative of addressing climate change is underscored by unequivocal scientific consensus. To avert the dire consequences of planetary warming—ranging from sea-level rise to wildfires, hurricanes, mass extinction, and extreme weather events—the world must rapidly and significantly reduce its emissions of climate-warming fossil fuels. The 2015 commitment by world leaders aimed to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius, preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
Exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold poses severe risks to global food systems, coral reefs, and may trigger irreversible climate tipping points. Jim Skea, chair of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emphasized at COP28 that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius remains "still possible—just," but continued emissions make this goal increasingly challenging.
One landmark outcome of COP28 is the allocation of millions of dollars to developing countries grappling with current climate change impacts. This marks a departure from historical practices where developing nations bore the brunt of damages caused primarily by wealthier countries responsible for significant emissions. The establishment of a loss and damage fund, agreed upon a year ago, now sees over $700 million committed, notably from European countries and a $100 million contribution from the United Arab Emirates.
A central debate at COP28 revolved around the approach to fossil fuels—whether the final agreement would advocate for a "phase out," complete cessation, or a gradual reduction, termed a "phase down." This debate encapsulates the ongoing challenge of transitioning away from fossil fuels, which remain the principal driver of global warming.
As the world grapples with the outcomes of COP28, the focus on financial support for vulnerable nations and the nuanced approach to fossil fuel reduction mark critical steps in the global effort to combat climate change. The urgency to act, underscored by scientific warnings, is met with both progress and ongoing challenges in navigating the complex landscape of international climate negotiations.
The fossil fuel industry, including influential figures like the secretary general of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), vehemently opposed a straightforward "phase out" of fossil fuels. OPEC's largest member, Saudi Arabia, reportedly stood firm in rejecting proposals targeting fossil fuels. In a nuanced compromise, negotiators settled on a commitment to "reduce both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner," aiming to eliminate climate pollution entirely by 2050.
In a significant move, countries pledged to collectively "double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030." More than 120 nations at COP28 further committed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, a commitment already endorsed by the world's top greenhouse gas emitters, the U.S. and China, prior to the conference.
Tina Stege, the Climate Envoy of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, emphasized the renewables pledge as "half the solution" and underscored the imperative of reducing fossil fuel use as the other half. The Marshall Islands, among the most vulnerable to climate change, urged nations to intensify efforts to phase out fossil fuels and limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Negotiators also pledged to "[a]ccelerate and substantially reduce non-CO2 emissions, including, in particular, methane emissions globally by 2030." Recognizing methane's potency as the second most common greenhouse gas, efforts to cut emissions received widespread support, with 155 governments now participating in the Global Methane Pledge.
While some oil companies committed to reducing methane leaks and achieving "near zero" emissions by 2050, UN Secretary General António Guterres expressed skepticism, asserting that the promises made by the fossil fuel industry fell short of the necessary measures to address the climate crisis.
A noteworthy development was the commitment to direct millions of dollars to developing countries grappling with "loss and damage" from climate change. The special fund created for this purpose has garnered over $700 million in pledges, with the U.S. contributing $17.5 million.
As COP28 concluded, the complex negotiations and compromises reflect the ongoing tension between the imperative to reduce fossil fuel use and the entrenched interests of the fossil fuel industry. The commitments made, while seen as progress by some, are met with skepticism and calls for more ambitious action to meet the urgent challenges posed by climate change.
In the coming year, countries are set to establish a new fund for loss and damage, defining the types of damages eligible for compensation. Housed at the World Bank for at least four years, the fund aims to address the impacts of climate change, such as severe storms, rising sea levels, and water shortages. Initial pledges for the fund, while a step forward, are acknowledged as insufficient. A United Nations report estimates that developing countries may require nearly $400 billion annually to cope with escalating climate impacts. Recognizing the inadequacy of relying solely on wealthier nations, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley proposes taxing oil and gas companies, whose substantial profits could bridge the funding gap.
Mottley emphasizes the urgency of convening entities capable of bridging the financial divide, urging innovative approaches to secure necessary resources. The issue of climate finance, a longstanding challenge in negotiations, persists as the commitment falls short of the required funding. The $100 billion annually pledged by industrialized nations, initially promised at the 2009 Copenhagen talks, was only tentatively met last year, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Despite progress on the loss and damage front, climate finance remains a formidable obstacle, with advocates stressing that $100 billion is insufficient. The recent flooding in Pakistan alone is estimated to have caused $40 billion in damages. While discussions on loss and damage advance, the shadow of climate finance looms large, underscoring the persistent challenges in securing adequate funding to address the consequences of climate change.
In a notable shift, the oil and gas industry played a prominent role at COP28, with OPEC hosting a pavilion and ExxonMobil's CEO attending, signaling an unprecedented presence at U.N. climate talks. The industry's increased engagement highlights the evolving dynamics and challenges in navigating the intersection of climate action and the interests of major fossil fuel stakeholders.
The substantial presence of the oil and gas industry at COP28, described by climate activists and certain delegates as a sign of industry anxiety, sparked controversy. Pre-summit reports revealed the UAE's intention to leverage the climate conference for oil and gas deals. During the conference, a video surfaced of COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber erroneously stating that there was no scientific basis for ending fossil fuels. In a counterpoint, Colombia, a major coal exporter with significant oil and gas reserves, announced its commitment to the "Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty." This treaty, aimed at halting the expansion of fossil fuel production, has garnered support primarily from smaller island states.
Tzeporah Berman, Chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, expressed the significance of placing fossil fuels at the center stage of global climate negotiations for the first time in 28 COPs. The attention on the oil industry's role in global warming, though unprecedented, underscores the challenges and complexities of addressing the fossil fuel sector's impact on climate change.
For the first time in U.N. climate talks, COP28 saw a notable focus on human health, with over 140 countries signing a declaration emphasizing that climate change is jeopardizing lives and health. While health advocates celebrated the increased attention to human health, they called for a swift and complete phase-out of fossil fuel burning to address health risks from both climate impacts and air pollution caused by fossil fuels, which claims millions of lives annually.
Developing countries stressed the need for significant and consistent financial support to bolster sustainable health efforts. Some nations, like the low-lying Philippines and Fiji, require funding to relocate hospitals away from coasts vulnerable to sea-level rise and intensified storms. Others seek resources to expand disease early-warning systems, highlighting the multifaceted challenges in integrating health considerations into climate action.
During the conference, nonprofits, the United Kingdom, and development banks collectively committed at least $1 billion to climate and health-related projects. Despite these pledges, there remains a pressing and consistent demand for increased financial support, according to Desta Lakew, a development specialist with Amref, a prominent medical non-governmental organization operating extensively in Africa. Negotiators representing developing countries had aspired to secure an agreement that would double the financial resources allocated to their nations, specifically targeting adaptation, including strengthening their health systems. However, Lakew emphasized that even doubling the current funding would fall significantly short of meeting the urgent financial needs. She highlighted the challenging access to existing funds, noting that accessibility is limited to specific channels, hindering a more widespread and immediate response to the critical funding requirements.
In conclusion, COP28 marked a notable shift in attention to critical issues at the intersection of climate change, health, and finance. The increased prominence of the oil and gas industry at the conference stirred controversy, shedding light on the industry's role in climate change and signaling a departure from previous climate negotiations. The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed by Colombia, underscored the global call to curb fossil fuel production.
Health took center stage at COP28, with a declaration signed by over 140 countries emphasizing the impact of climate change on human lives and health. While welcomed, health advocates stressed the need for a swift phase-out of fossil fuels to address health risks comprehensively.
Financial commitments, including at least $1 billion for climate and health-related projects, were made by nonprofits, the United Kingdom, and development banks. Despite these pledges, there remains an urgent and persistent need for increased, consistent financial support, particularly for developing countries. The challenges in accessing available funds highlight the complexities in ensuring timely and equitable financial assistance.
COP28 showcased both progress and challenges in addressing the multifaceted aspects of climate change, underscoring the interconnectedness of environmental, health, and financial considerations on the global stage.
