As annual debates arise over the demise of Black Friday, the reality remains: the Friday that traditionally signals the commencement of the holiday shopping season persists as the busiest day for U.S. stores. While many shoppers assert that Black Friday is overhyped, the statistics tell a different story. A survey by PwC reveals that nearly 1 in 5 Americans still plan to do "most of their shopping" on Black Friday, showcasing the enduring appeal of this retail phenomenon.
In a twist of fate, this year's Black Friday may not boast the best or the worst deals, but the holiday season is poised to set another shopping record. The National Retail Federation anticipates a staggering 182 million people participating in this long weekend of retail therapy, marking the highest number since tracking began in 2017. Fueling the Black Friday flame are deal-hunting millennials, with those in their late 20s to early 40s expected to contribute over 40% of spending between Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
In a nostalgic nod to pre-digital times, half of these savvy shoppers express an intention to pursue doorbusters, planning shopping escapades between midnight and 7 a.m., according to a Deloitte survey. Despite concerns over economic uncertainties, shoppers are projected to spend slightly more than the previous year, with an average of $875 allocated for holiday purchases. Gift expenditures are expected to see an uptick, maintaining the festive spirit, while decorations, candy, and snacks maintain a steady budget.
The National Retail Federation forecasts an overall spending growth between 3% and 4% this holiday season. Although this signals a slowdown from the pandemic-induced boom, it aligns with trends observed in the decade prior. With the total expenditure on track to surpass $957 billion, a record-setting holiday season appears imminent.
However, amid the celebratory atmosphere, a shadow looms over Americans' financial health. Credit card balances have reached a record $1.08 trillion, presenting a nearly 5% increase. Concerningly, more cardholders, particularly those in their 30s, are falling behind on credit card bills. Katie Thomas of the Kearney Consumer Institute acknowledges this as "the biggest risk" for the holiday season, foreseeing a reckoning in the new year as Americans grapple with post-holiday financial realities in 2024.
In a season where sentiments of togetherness take center stage, holiday shoppers are revealing a shift in priorities. Surveys indicate that this year, individuals are placing a premium on gifts for their closest relatives and themselves, turning self-gifting into a prominent theme. A notable 28% of shoppers, a record figure, express intentions to indulge in makeup, beauty products, and other personal care items, according to the National Retail Federation's survey. However, the perennial favorite remains unchanged, with gift cards retaining their timeless appeal as the ultimate holiday present.
As the Black Friday weekend approaches, clothes are poised to maintain their reign as the top-selling category, closely followed by the perennially popular gift cards and toys, according to the National Retail Federation. Among the favored choices in the toy department are Lego bricks, Hot Wheels, cars, Barbie, and other dolls.
For those seeking strategic discounts during the Black Friday shopping spree, Adobe Analytics provides a roadmap. The best deals on TVs are anticipated on Friday, computers on Saturday, toys on Sunday, and clothes on Monday. Electronics and furniture are expected to take the spotlight on Tuesday, with appliances claiming the spotlight on Wednesday, and sporting goods wrapping up the discount bonanza on the following Wednesday.
Entering the holiday shopping season, Americans find themselves navigating a delicate balance. The resumption of student loan payments and the fading of childcare subsidies have added financial pressure, coupled with increased expenditures on food and rent. However, the backdrop remains optimistic, with unemployment hovering near historic lows at 3.9% in October, and wages showing a steady upward climb. Despite persistent concerns about inflation, which has shown signs of cooling, retailers anticipate that the majority of U.S. shoppers will embrace the spirit of splurging for the holidays.
Thomas, a leading voice in this retail landscape, affirms the enduring allure of holiday spending, emphasizing that people are attuned to the belief that it's the best time of the year for discounts. As the holiday season unfolds, the confluence of strategic shopping, self-indulgence, and the perennial appeal of gift cards sets the stage for a festive and economically dynamic celebration.
In conclusion, as the holiday shopping season unfolds, a distinct narrative of consumer behavior emerges. The emphasis on self-gifting, the enduring popularity of gift cards, and strategic splurges on Black Friday weekend create a dynamic tapestry of festive commerce. Shoppers, despite economic pressures such as resumed student loan payments and diminishing childcare subsidies, find themselves in a landscape where unemployment remains historically low, wages are on an upward trajectory, and inflation, while present, has shown signs of cooling.
The optimism in the retail sector is palpable, with expectations high for a robust holiday spending season. The resilience of consumer sentiment prevails, driven by a collective understanding that the holidays offer the best prices of the year. As shoppers navigate discounts on clothes, toys, and electronics during the Black Friday bonanza, the convergence of strategic shopping and the timeless joy of gift-giving sets the stage for a celebration that extends beyond material transactions to the spirit of togetherness and generosity that defines the holiday season.